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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
1
22
29
52
0
1
1
2
1
23
32
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
40
40
0
0
20
20
0
20
20
40
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
2
39
52
93
0
2
2
4
2
41
57
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 2.26 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.415 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 -0.176
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.020 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.031
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.577 0.500
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00