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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
2
3
0
1
1
2
0
2
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
22
30
53
0
1
1
2
1
23
32
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
17
17
0
17
33
50
0
17
17
33
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
2
39
54
95
0
2
2
4
2
41
57
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.30 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.407 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.007 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.031
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.585 0.500
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00