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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
7
8
0
1
8
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
6
40
47
0
1
7
8
1
7
48
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
0
0
0
0
11
78
89
0
11
89
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
2
11
71
84
0
2
13
14
2
13
86
100

hitrate: 0.778 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 6.71 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.667 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.667 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: -0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.778
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 -0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.003 0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.146
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.872 0.125
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00