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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
6
45
52
0
1
3
4
1
7
48
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
11
80
93
0
2
5
7
2
13
86
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 7.43 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.259
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.259
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.113 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.011 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.885 0.250
samples: 4 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 7.14 %coverage: 100.00