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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
0
6
6
0
1
9
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
7
42
50
0
0
6
6
1
7
48
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
30
40
0
0
60
60
0
10
90
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
13
75
89
0
0
11
11
2
13
86
100

hitrate: 0.700 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 4.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 7.14 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.550 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: 0.286 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: 0.550 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: 0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.115
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.140 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.860 0.000
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00