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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
6
47
54
0
0
0
0
1
7
48
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
20
40
0
20
40
60
0
0
0
0
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
2
11
84
96
0
0
0
0
2
13
86
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.107
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 7.71 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.339
true Heidke skill score: -0.053 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.339
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.109 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.071 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.012 -0.016 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.889 0.000
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00