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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
12
17
0
0
3
3
0
1
14
15
0
6
29
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
12
17
0
6
18
24
0
1
14
15
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
34
49
0
0
9
9
0
3
40
43
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
21
30
0
11
32
43
0
2
25
27
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 0.52
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.34
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.106 true Kuipers skill score: 0.163
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.467
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.311
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.061 0.089
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 0.067
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.483
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.067
samples: 35 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 62.50 %coverage: 100.00