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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
16
21
0
0
5
5
0
1
12
13
0
6
33
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
16
21
0
6
16
22
0
1
12
13
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
41
54
0
0
13
13
0
3
31
33
0
15
85
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
29
38
0
11
29
39
0
2
21
23
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.83 0.39
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.83 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.008 true Heidke skill score: 0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.023 true Kuipers skill score: 0.163
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.353
threat score:
0.000 0.214 0.267
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.075 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.055 0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.364
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.273
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.727 0.077
samples: 39 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 69.64 %coverage: 100.00