CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
8
9
0
0
6
6
0
1
15
16
0
2
29
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
8
9
0
10
21
31
0
1
15
16
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
26
29
0
0
19
19
0
3
48
52
0
6
94
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
14
16
0
18
38
55
0
2
27
29
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.484 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 3.00 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.58 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.226 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: -0.023 true Heidke skill score: 0.157
Kuipers skill score: 0.226 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: -0.095 true Kuipers skill score: 0.307
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.303 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.051 0.002
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.127 0.075
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.517
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.341
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.677 0.062
samples: 31 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 55.36 %coverage: 100.00