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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
6
8
0
0
7
7
0
1
16
17
0
3
29
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
6
8
0
9
22
31
0
1
16
17
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
19
25
0
0
22
22
0
3
50
53
0
9
91
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
11
14
0
16
39
55
0
2
29
30
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.33 0.59
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.58 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: -0.004 true Heidke skill score: 0.139
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: -0.011 true Kuipers skill score: 0.265
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.533
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.356
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.070 0.041
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.086 0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.552
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.710 0.059
samples: 32 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 57.14 %coverage: 100.00