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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
7
8
0
1
22
23
0
3
29
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
10
22
32
0
1
22
23
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
0
3
22
25
0
3
69
72
0
9
91
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
18
39
57
0
2
39
41
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.719 hitrate: 0.571
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.67 0.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.67 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.578 Heidke skill score: 0.357
true Heidke skill score: 0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.228
Kuipers skill score: 0.578 Kuipers skill score: 0.357
true Kuipers skill score: 0.259 true Kuipers skill score: 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.733
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.489
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.126
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.116 0.146
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.759
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.688 0.043
samples: 32 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 57.14 %coverage: 100.00