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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
23
24
0
2
27
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
21
32
0
1
23
24
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
14
17
0
3
79
83
0
7
93
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
38
57
0
2
41
43
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.828 hitrate: 0.607
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.50 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.67 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.741 Heidke skill score: 0.411
true Heidke skill score: 0.208 true Heidke skill score: 0.274
Kuipers skill score: 0.741 Kuipers skill score: 0.411
true Kuipers skill score: 0.352 true Kuipers skill score: 0.439
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.821
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.511
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.116 0.116
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.158 0.158
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.852
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.523
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.042
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.656 0.042
samples: 29 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 51.79 %coverage: 100.00