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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
9
10
0
2
13
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
35
46
0
1
9
10
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
7
27
33
0
7
60
67
0
13
87
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
20
63
82
0
2
16
18
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.50 0.77
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 3.83 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.192 true Kuipers skill score: 0.121
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.643
threat score:
0.000 0.234 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.062 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.031 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.692
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.205
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.761 0.100
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00