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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
3
0
4
7
3
1
4
8
8
4
12
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
6
14
19
39
3
1
4
8
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
13
17
38
13
0
17
29
13
4
17
33
33
17
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
7
16
11
25
34
70
5
2
7
14
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.12 1.75 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.82 2.17 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.137 true Heidke skill score: 0.049
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.148 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.111 0.326 0.129
equitable threat score:
-0.083 -0.119 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.014 0.048 0.005
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.182 0.778 0.148
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.641 0.500
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00