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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
6
12
3
0
4
7
3
1
5
9
8
5
15
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
6
12
6
13
16
35
3
1
5
9
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
21
43
11
0
14
25
11
4
18
32
29
18
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
11
21
11
23
29
63
5
2
9
16
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 1.40 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.09 1.94 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.149 true Kuipers skill score: 0.059
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.263
threat score:
0.095 0.325 0.161
equitable threat score:
-0.098 -0.116 0.013
equitable threat score:
-0.019 0.061 0.025
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.182 0.722 0.185
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 1.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.629 0.444
samples: 28 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00