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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
2
2
2
1
4
7
3
3
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
8
15
21
44
2
1
4
7
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
14
36
0
0
14
14
14
7
29
50
21
21
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
4
9
14
27
38
79
4
2
7
13
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.357 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.67 0.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 2.44 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.036 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: 0.040
Kuipers skill score: 0.036 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.061 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.067 0.319 0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.012 -0.094 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.026 0.023
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.091 0.833 0.148
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 1.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.659 0.429
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00