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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
7
9
0
0
4
4
2
1
4
7
3
2
15
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
7
9
8
16
16
40
2
1
4
7
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
35
45
0
0
20
20
10
5
20
35
15
10
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
13
16
14
29
29
71
4
2
7
13
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 2.00 0.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.82 2.22 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: 0.079
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.247 true Kuipers skill score: 0.086
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.053 0.381 0.133
equitable threat score:
-0.036 -0.071 -0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.045 0.108 0.023
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.267
probability of detection:
0.091 0.889 0.148
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 1.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.600 0.429
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00