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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
3
1
10
14
3
1
11
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
17
17
42
3
1
10
14
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
7
20
7
67
93
20
7
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
30
30
75
5
2
18
25
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.27
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.33 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: -0.071 true Heidke skill score: 0.189
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: -0.053 true Kuipers skill score: 0.193
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.395 0.323
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.034 -0.056
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.119 0.134
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.909
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.370
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.595 0.286
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00