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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
1
13
18
4
1
13
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
17
14
38
4
1
13
18
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
6
72
100
22
6
72
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
30
25
68
7
2
23
32
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.722 hitrate: 0.536
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.11 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.583 Heidke skill score: 0.304
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.259
Kuipers skill score: 0.583 Kuipers skill score: 0.304
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.260
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.722
threat score:
0.000 0.436 0.406
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.179 0.185
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.481
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.553 0.278
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00