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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
1
11
16
4
1
12
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
17
16
40
4
1
11
16
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
24
6
65
94
24
6
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
30
29
71
7
2
20
29
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.647 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.22 0.59
Heidke skill score: 0.471 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: -0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.210
Kuipers skill score: 0.471 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: -0.047 true Kuipers skill score: 0.212
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.647
threat score:
0.000 0.415 0.344
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 -0.052
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.147 0.135
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.917
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.407
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.575 0.312
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00