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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
0
2
7
2
2
6
10
7
2
8
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
16
21
46
2
2
6
10
11
18
27
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
0
12
41
12
12
35
59
41
12
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
29
38
82
4
4
11
18
20
32
48
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.50 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.56 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: 0.066
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.047 true Kuipers skill score: 0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.194
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.101 0.177
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.037 0.045
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.652 0.400
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00