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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
4
5
2
11
1
2
2
5
6
10
5
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
1
5
8
21
17
46
1
2
2
5
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
14
5
24
19
24
10
52
5
10
10
24
29
48
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
9
14
38
30
82
2
4
4
9
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 1.10 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.77 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.011 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.011 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.100 0.312 0.250
threat score:
0.071 0.412 0.087
equitable threat score:
-0.050 -0.022 0.119
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.012 0.010
probability of detection:
0.167 0.500 0.400
probability of detection:
0.100 0.808 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.545 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.543 0.600
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00