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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
2
3
4
9
2
4
2
8
4
9
7
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
8
20
17
45
2
4
2
8
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
10
5
15
10
15
20
45
10
20
10
40
20
45
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
14
36
30
80
4
7
4
14
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 1.00 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.73 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.195 true Heidke skill score: -0.072
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.193 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.154
threat score:
0.000 0.392 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.094 -0.096 -0.078
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.030 -0.037
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.286
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.556 0.750
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00