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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
5
2
1
3
6
3
8
3
14
5
13
7
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
1
5
7
14
16
37
3
8
3
14
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
16
4
20
8
4
12
24
12
32
12
56
20
52
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
2
9
13
25
29
66
5
14
5
25
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.160 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.46 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.42 0.70
Heidke skill score: -0.260 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.238 true Heidke skill score: -0.184
Kuipers skill score: -0.260 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.264 true Kuipers skill score: -0.173
threat score:
0.000 0.056 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.097
equitable threat score:
-0.111 -0.142 -0.065
equitable threat score:
-0.063 -0.100 -0.077
probability of detection:
0.000 0.077 0.429
probability of detection:
0.000 0.538 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.622 0.786
samples: 25 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 44.64 %coverage: 100.00