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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
1
0
0
1
3
8
4
15
5
12
5
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
1
6
6
14
15
35
3
8
4
15
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
18
5
27
5
0
0
5
14
36
18
68
23
55
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
2
11
11
25
27
63
5
14
7
27
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.227 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.20 0.08 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 1.35 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.159 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.019 true Heidke skill score: -0.110
Kuipers skill score: -0.159 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.024 true Kuipers skill score: -0.105
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.067 0.298 0.129
equitable threat score:
-0.042 -0.044 0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.073 -0.053
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.100 0.538 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 1.000 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.600 0.733
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00