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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
1
1
1
3
2
6
3
11
3
9
5
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
8
18
16
42
2
6
3
11
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
12
6
18
6
6
6
18
12
35
18
65
18
53
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
14
32
29
75
4
11
5
20
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.33 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.62 0.55
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.116 true Heidke skill score: -0.093
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.132 true Kuipers skill score: -0.085
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.231
threat score:
0.000 0.360 0.107
equitable threat score:
-0.097 -0.062 -0.024
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.049 -0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.111 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.692 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.571 0.727
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00