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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
2
1
3
4
6
3
13
4
9
5
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
6
19
16
41
4
6
3
13
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
11
0
11
6
17
22
33
17
72
22
50
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
11
34
29
73
7
11
5
23
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.33 2.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.58 0.65
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.045 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.050 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.396 0.100
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.059 -0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.001 -0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.222 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.731 0.150
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.537 0.769
samples: 18 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 32.14 %coverage: 100.00