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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
7
5
16
4
7
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
19
15
40
4
7
5
16
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
44
31
100
25
44
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
34
27
71
7
13
9
29
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.312 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.54 0.80
Heidke skill score: -0.031 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.031 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.161
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.015 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.731 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.525 0.688
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00