CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
4
6
4
14
5
6
4
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
20
16
42
4
6
4
14
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
7
27
40
27
93
33
40
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
36
29
75
7
11
7
25
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.17 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.62 0.70
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.014 true Kuipers skill score: -0.014
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.417 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.061 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.018 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.524 0.714
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00