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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
5
6
4
15
6
6
5
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
20
16
41
5
6
4
15
10
26
20
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
12
29
35
24
88
35
35
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
36
29
73
9
11
7
27
18
46
36
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.58 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.094 true Heidke skill score: -0.012
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.099 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.426 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.097 -0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 -0.053
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.769 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.512 0.733
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00