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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
0
2
3
2
4
5
11
3
5
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
11
4
29
44
2
4
5
11
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
0
7
7
0
13
20
13
27
33
73
20
33
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
20
7
52
79
4
7
9
20
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.60 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 4.89 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.259
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: -0.119
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.259
true Kuipers skill score: -0.141 true Kuipers skill score: -0.161
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.000 0.082 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.143 -0.017
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.073 -0.050
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.444 0.147
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.545
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.909 0.545
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00