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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
2
3
6
0
3
4
7
1
5
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
13
6
29
48
0
3
4
7
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
7
7
7
14
21
43
0
21
29
50
7
36
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
23
11
52
86
0
5
7
13
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.179
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.20 0.87
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.33 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.232
true Heidke skill score: -0.028 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.232
true Kuipers skill score: -0.028 true Kuipers skill score: -0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.364
threat score:
0.000 0.118 0.108
equitable threat score:
-0.037 -0.021 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.040 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.429
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00