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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
2
5
0
3
1
4
2
4
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
6
33
52
0
3
1
4
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
11
22
56
0
33
11
44
22
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
11
59
93
0
5
2
7
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.25 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 5.78 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.312
true Heidke skill score: -0.286 true Heidke skill score: -0.084
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.312
true Kuipers skill score: -0.269 true Kuipers skill score: -0.123
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.109 0.027
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.212 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.051 -0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.885 0.750
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00