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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
3
0
4
1
1
1
3
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
12
8
32
52
1
1
1
3
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
13
13
13
38
0
50
13
13
13
38
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
21
14
57
93
2
2
2
5
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.78 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.259
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.259
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: -0.046
threat score:
0.000 0.600 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.151 0.028
equitable threat score:
-0.091 0.333 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.008 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.846 0.667
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00