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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
1
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
3
3
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
11
7
32
50
0
1
1
2
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
13
13
50
13
13
0
25
0
13
13
25
38
38
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
7
20
13
57
89
0
2
2
4
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.179
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.31 5.56 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.232
true Heidke skill score: 0.238 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.232
true Kuipers skill score: 0.238 true Kuipers skill score: -0.006
threat score:
0.400 0.250 0.333
threat score:
0.133 0.135 0.029
equitable threat score:
0.143 0.077 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.076 -0.024 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.667 0.333 0.500
probability of detection:
0.154 0.778 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.860 0.500
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00