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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4
3
2
0
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
10
7
34
51
3
1
0
4
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
0
0
0
60
20
0
80
60
40
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
18
13
61
91
5
2
0
7
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.67 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.312
true Heidke skill score: -0.136 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.312
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.132 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.176 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.027 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.863 1.000
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00