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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
2
2
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
11
7
34
52
2
1
0
3
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
25
0
25
0
0
0
0
50
25
0
75
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
20
13
61
93
4
2
0
5
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.78 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.312
true Heidke skill score: -0.143 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.312
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.110
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.130 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.200 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.030 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.865 1.000
samples: 4 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 7.14 %coverage: 100.00