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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
5
2
4
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
11
5
34
50
2
3
0
5
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
0
17
0
0
0
0
33
50
0
83
33
67
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
20
9
61
89
4
5
0
9
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.089
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 5.56 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.366
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.141
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.366
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.204
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.093 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.066 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.900 1.000
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00