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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
13
31
51
0
2
3
5
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
60
100
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
23
55
91
0
4
5
9
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.40 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.245 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.088
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.745 0.400
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00