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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
0
0
1
1
3
10
14
2
4
11
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
6
11
23
40
1
3
10
14
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
6
12
6
0
0
6
6
18
59
82
12
24
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
11
20
41
71
2
5
18
25
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.588 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 1.27
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.67 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.382 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.063 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.382 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.054 true Kuipers skill score: 0.050
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.263
equitable threat score:
-0.062 -0.049 0.158
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.009 0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.909
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.725 0.286
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00