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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
2
7
10
2
2
8
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
5
13
27
45
1
2
7
10
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
8
8
8
17
58
83
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
9
23
48
80
2
4
13
18
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.50 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.090
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.636
threat score:
0.143 0.277 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.455 -0.059 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.127 0.027 0.030
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.143 0.867 0.206
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.711 0.300
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00