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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
2
2
5
0
1
8
9
2
3
10
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
6
14
26
46
0
1
8
9
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
0
0
7
7
13
13
33
0
7
53
60
13
20
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
11
25
46
82
0
2
14
16
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.733 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.67 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.07 0.26
Heidke skill score: 0.600 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.492 true Heidke skill score: 0.134
Kuipers skill score: 0.600 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.518 true Kuipers skill score: 0.167
threat score:
0.500 0.333 0.727
threat score:
0.143 0.298 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.464 0.200 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.127 0.048 0.086
probability of detection:
0.500 0.667 0.800
probability of detection:
0.143 0.933 0.235
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.696 0.111
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00