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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
0
2
0
2
0
1
5
6
2
6
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
5
11
29
45
0
1
5
6
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
23
0
38
0
15
0
15
0
8
38
46
15
46
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
0
9
9
20
52
80
0
2
9
11
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.692 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.33 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 3.00 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.538 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.556 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.538 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.625 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.400 0.333 0.833
threat score:
0.200 0.224 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.291 0.212 0.729
equitable threat score:
0.147 -0.029 0.043
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.286 0.733 0.147
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.756 0.167
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00