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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
3
7
12
2
3
8
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
5
12
26
43
2
3
7
12
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
15
23
54
92
15
23
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
9
21
46
77
4
5
13
21
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.538 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.87 0.35
Heidke skill score: 0.308 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.099 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.308 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.076 true Kuipers skill score: 0.002
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.538
threat score:
0.000 0.261 0.179
equitable threat score:
-0.054 0.000 -0.068
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.014 -0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.206
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.721 0.417
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00