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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
8
2
2
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
5
13
29
47
2
2
4
8
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
0
0
0
22
22
44
89
22
22
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
9
23
52
84
4
4
7
14
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.13 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.154 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.125 true Kuipers skill score: -0.019
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.265 0.105
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.000 -0.098
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.011 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.723 0.500
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00