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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
7
11
2
2
8
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
5
13
26
44
2
2
7
11
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
0
0
0
0
17
17
58
92
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
9
23
46
79
4
4
13
20
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.93 0.32
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: 0.046
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.583
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.184
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.000 -0.071
equitable threat score:
-0.016 0.035 0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.875
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.206
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.705 0.364
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00