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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
2
4
6
0
2
12
14
0
5
17
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
7
12
20
39
0
2
12
14
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
5
9
0
9
18
27
0
9
55
64
0
23
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
13
22
36
71
0
4
22
25
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.636 hitrate: 0.436
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.20 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.60 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.455 Heidke skill score: 0.155
true Heidke skill score: 0.185 true Heidke skill score: 0.132
Kuipers skill score: 0.455 Kuipers skill score: 0.155
true Kuipers skill score: 0.235 true Kuipers skill score: 0.156
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.632
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.343
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.144
equitable threat score:
-0.029 0.043 0.135
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.706
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.692 0.143
samples: 22 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00