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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
17
22
0
5
17
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
10
16
33
0
5
17
22
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
77
100
0
23
77
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
18
29
60
0
9
31
40
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.773 hitrate: 0.491
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.20 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.659 Heidke skill score: 0.236
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.146
Kuipers skill score: 0.659 Kuipers skill score: 0.236
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.159
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.773
threat score:
0.000 0.263 0.447
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 0.153
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.515
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.697 0.227
samples: 22 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00