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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
4
1
4
12
17
1
6
14
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
11
21
38
1
4
12
17
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
19
5
19
57
81
5
29
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
20
38
69
2
7
22
31
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.418
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.53 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.127
true Heidke skill score: 0.179 true Heidke skill score: 0.071
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.127
true Kuipers skill score: 0.154 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.632
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.316
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.020 0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.364
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.711 0.294
samples: 21 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 38.18 %coverage: 100.00