CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199806-199808

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
1
4
11
16
1
7
12
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
11
22
39
1
4
11
16
7
15
33
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
15
5
20
5
20
55
80
5
35
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
20
40
71
2
7
20
29
13
27
60
100

hitrate: 0.700 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.57 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.60 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.550 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.550 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.291 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.000 0.375 0.647
threat score:
0.000 0.256 0.289
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.242 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.049
probability of detection:
0.000 0.429 0.917
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.718 0.312
samples: 20 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 36.36 %coverage: 100.00